Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Tim Boyle.
The Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 59.8% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 131.6 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
In this week's game, Garrett Wilson is expected by the projections to rank in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.7 targets.

Favors Under

The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a mere 54.9 per game on average).
When it comes to pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in football this year.
Garrett Wilson grades out as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing just 59.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 24th percentile among wide receivers
This year, the tough Falcons defense has given up a paltry 61.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.

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