Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Tim Boyle.
An extreme passing game script is implied by the Jets being a huge -9.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Garrett Wilson has gone out for fewer passes this year (97.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (86.4%).
In this week's contest, Garrett Wilson is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 11.1 targets.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt worse passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
The Jets O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
With a bad 58.2% Adjusted Completion% (19th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among wideouts.

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