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Garrett Wilson
NFL · Player Props
Garrett Wilson
WR · New York Jets
Receptions
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023 Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC
NFL Props Garrett Wilson Receptions

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -148.

Favors Over
  • The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Tim Boyle.
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Jets being a huge -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Garrett Wilson has gone out for fewer passes this year (97.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (86.4%).
  • In this week's contest, Garrett Wilson is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 11.1 targets.
Favors Under
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.4 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt worse passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
  • The Jets O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • With a bad 58.2% Adjusted Completion% (19th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among wideouts.
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