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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to garner 7.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.

Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which places him in the 79th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) versus wideouts this year (61.5%).

The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a mere 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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