Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+152/-206).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -164 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -206.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to garner 6.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 20.7% this year, which places him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.