Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+136/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jets rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 7.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on just 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.