Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-145/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 8.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a measly 62.4% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 19th percentile among wideouts
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a lowly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.