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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to earn 7.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.

Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 22.5% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) vs. WRs this year (61.2%).

The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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