Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-189/+136).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New York Jets O-line has given their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.