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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-120/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 63.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 61.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.6% pass rate.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

Garrett Wilson has run a route on 98.5% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

The model projects Garrett Wilson to notch 9.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the New York Jets profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.

The 10th-fewest plays in football have been called by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last year, Garrett Wilson has fallen off this year, currently averaging 93.0 per game.

With a feeble 7.5 adjusted yards per target (25th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson stands among the worst WRs in the league in football.

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