Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
Garrett Wilson's 98.4% Route Participation% this year reflects a a material gain in his pass game utilization over last year's 86.4% rate.
In this week's game, Garrett Wilson is predicted by the model to rank in the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 9.3 targets.

Favors Under

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
Garrett Wilson has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (87.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
With a poor 6.9 adjusted yards per target (24th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson stands among the bottom wide receivers in the game in the league.
Garrett Wilson has been among the worst WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.

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