Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:56 PM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to accumulate 9.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jets rank as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 57.7% pass rate.
The projections expect this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom wideouts in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.