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Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-114/-114).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Jets will be forced to use backup quarterback Trevor Siemian this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.Garrett Wilson has run fewer routes this year (98.0% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (86.4%).The model projects Garrett Wilson to earn 8.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.After averaging 94.0 air yards per game last season, Garrett Wilson has undergone big improvement this season, currently pacing 105.0 per game.Garrett Wilson checks in as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 65.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.Our trusted projections expect the Jets to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.Garrett Wilson profiles as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching just 59.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 21st percentile among wideoutsGarrett Wilson's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, notching a mere 6.52 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.63 rate last season.
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