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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
  • The model projects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Garrett Wilson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (97.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (86.4%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (just 56.0 per game on average).
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
  • With a subpar 7.0 adjusted yards per target (21st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson has been as one of the weakest WRs in the game in the league.
  • With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson rates as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL in space.

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