Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 68.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 67.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 9.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, hauling in just 61.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 18th percentile among wide receivers
Garrett Wilson has been among the worst wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.