Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (+100/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to garner 7.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which places him in the 79th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) versus wideouts this year (61.5%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus WRs this year, allowing 7.74 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The New England Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

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