Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 53.0 yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 58.9% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile among WRs
Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.