Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to notch 9.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 23.3% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has notched a whopping 71.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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