Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to earn 7.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 22.5% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 143.0) vs. WRs this year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) vs. WRs this year (61.2%).

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