Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+273/-463).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +284 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +273.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Garrett Wilson has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.5% this year, which ranks him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.5%).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.