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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+262/-445).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +314 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +262.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 31.0% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.

Garrett Wilson's 47.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 75th percentile for wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) versus wideouts this year (61.5%).

The New England Patriots defense has given up the 8th-least TDs through the air in the league to wide receivers: 0.57 per game this year.

The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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