Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+329/-616).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -614 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -616.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 31.0% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson's 48.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 77th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 58.9% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile among WRs
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.8%).
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the least passing TDs in the league to WRs: 0.17 per game this year.

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