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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-429).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +294 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +255.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Garrett Wilson has posted a monstrous 87.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among WRs.

Garrett Wilson's 49.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 76th percentile for WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to be much less involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (23.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).

The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (60.3%) versus wide receivers this year (60.3%).

The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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