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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+253/-414).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +273 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +253.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (67.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (67.6%).

The New York Jets O-line has given their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (23.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (40.0% in games he has played).

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Garrett Wilson has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 59.3% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile among wide receivers

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 10th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wideouts: 0.84 per game since the start of last season.

The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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