Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +186 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 29.3% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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