Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+239/-380).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -317 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -380.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson's 48.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 79th percentile for wide receivers.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (71.6%) vs. wideouts this year (71.6%).
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 8th-least passing TDs in the league to wideouts: 0.64 per game this year.

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