Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-454).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -387 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -454.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Garrett Wilson has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.3% this year, which puts him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been responsible for a monstrous 23.1% of his team's air yards this year: 75th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) vs. WRs this year (61.2%).
The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 2nd-least passing TDs in football to wideouts: 0.44 per game this year.
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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