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Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-240/+190).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 63.0% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The leading projections forecast Gardner Minshew to throw 35.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most out of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.89 seconds per snap.

This year, the fierce Broncos defense has given up a meager 1.09 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-best rate in the NFL.

The Broncos safeties profile as the 6th-best safety corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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