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Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-240/+190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -240.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are giant -8-point underdogs.

The model projects the Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Gardner Minshew's 67.2% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful improvement in his passing precision over last season's 61.9% mark.

The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The projections expect Gardner Minshew to attempt 34.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 10th-most out of all QBs.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.

Gardner Minshew has been among the weakest touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging a miserable 0.75 per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile.

The Dolphins defense has allowed the 5th-fewest passing TDs in football: 0.89 per game this year.

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