Gardner Minshew TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-265/+200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -265.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
The Indianapolis O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Gardner Minshew's 66.8% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a a meaningful gain in his passing accuracy over last season's 58.0% figure.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (54.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Colts.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.
Gardner Minshew has been one of the weakest TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a paltry 0.60 per game while ranking in the 21st percentile.
Since the start of last season, the stout Browns defense has conceded a feeble 65.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
The Browns defense has allowed the 5th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 0.80 per game this year.

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