Gardner Minshew TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).
The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.
The the Colts offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Gardner Minshew has attempted a mere 21.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 16th percentile among quarterbacks.
With a terrible ratio of only 0.50 per game (21st percentile), Gardner Minshew ranks among the worst touchdown throwers in the league this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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