Gardner Minshew TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +195 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Gardner Minshew to attempt 37.9 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 54.5% red zone pass rate.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 6th-least touchdowns through the air in football: 1.16 per game since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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