Gardner Minshew TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Colts to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.9% red zone pass rate.

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