Gardner Minshew TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 1:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+106/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to run the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.9 plays per game.
The Colts offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Colts as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 53.1% red zone pass rate.

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