Gardner Minshew Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 41.7% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league has been the Indianapolis Colts.
The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
The model projects Gardner Minshew to be a much bigger part of his team's running game in this contest (9.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects Gardner Minshew to accrue 5.0 rush attempts this week, on average: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.
With an atrocious total of 2.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (3rd percentile), Gardner Minshew has been as one of the weakest rushing quarterbacks in football this year.
With an awful record of 1.4 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (10th percentile), Gardner Minshew stands among the worst running QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.
This year, the tough Browns run defense has yielded a puny 73.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 3rd-best in football.

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