Gardner Minshew Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 43.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).
While Gardner Minshew has earned 2.6% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Indianapolis's run game in this week's contest at 12.4%.

Favors Under

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Gardner Minshew has averaged a mere 0.8 carries per game this year, one of the smallest rates in football when it comes to QBs (6th percentile).
Gardner Minshew has picked up a measly 1.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in football when it comes to QBs (3rd percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 84.0 per game) vs. the Jaguars defense this year.

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