Gardner Minshew Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 222.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 224.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).
The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.
The the Colts offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Gardner Minshew has attempted a mere 21.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 16th percentile among quarterbacks.
With a dreadful rate of 150.0 adjusted passing yards per game (18th percentile), Gardner Minshew has been as one of the worst QBs in the league this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.