Gardner Minshew Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Completions

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Gardner Minshew's 66.8% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteable boost in his throwing precision over last season's 58.0% rate.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to tilt 1.6% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Indianapolis Colts.
In racking up a mere 28.2 pass attempts per game this year, Gardner Minshew ranks among the bottom QBs in football (19th percentile) for this stat.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the league against the Saints defense this year (62.5% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's LB corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.