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Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew Completions
Player Prop Week 6

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts

Gardner Minshew Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).

The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.

The the Colts offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Gardner Minshew has attempted a mere 21.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 16th percentile among quarterbacks.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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