Gardner Minshew Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to tilt 1.6% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Right now, the 6th-most run-centric team in the league (42.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).
While Gardner Minshew has been responsible for 4.7% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Indianapolis's ground game this week at 10.6%.

Favors Under

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
Gardner Minshew has averaged a measly 1.3 rush attempts per game this year, one of the smallest rates in the NFL among QBs (11th percentile).
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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