Gardner Minshew Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Gardner Minshew

NFL · Player Props

Gardner Minshew

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Gardner Minshew Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.8% run rate.
The projections expect the Colts to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's collection of DEs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
In this week's game, Gardner Minshew is predicted by the projections to notch the 8th-fewest rush attempts among all QBs with 2.5.
Gardner Minshew is not much of a rushing QB and has accounted for a mere 5.0% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 16th percentile when it comes to QBs.

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