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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.1% pass rate.

Gabriel Davis has been on the field for 81.5% of his offense's snaps this year, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Jacksonville offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.9%) to wide receivers this year (68.9%).

The Patriots linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.

The predictive model expects the Jaguars to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Jaguars have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.

Gabriel Davis's 54.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a meaningful regression in his receiving ability over last year's 57.8% rate.

More Gabriel Davis Player Props

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