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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars may pass less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Mac Jones.

A passing game script is implied by the Jaguars being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 59.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.

The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.8 per game) this year.

Gabriel Davis's 79.7% snap rate this year reflects a substantial regression in his offensive workload over last year's 90.4% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.1 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Gabriel Davis's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 57.8% to 54.3%.

The Vikings linebackers project as the 9th-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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