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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Gabriel Davis's 59.3% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a noteable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 53.0% rate.

This year, the anemic Patriots pass defense has given up a massive 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL.

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, New England's safety corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this game.

The model projects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Gabriel Davis's 42.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 49.8.

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