Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +114 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Gabriel Davis's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 53.0% to 60.0%.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
Gabriel Davis's 40.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 49.8.
The Cowboys pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.1%) versus wideouts this year (58.1%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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