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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-182/+138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -177 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -182.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.

Gabriel Davis's 61.9% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a material improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 53.0% rate.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.

Gabriel Davis's 42.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 49.8.

More Gabriel Davis Player Props

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