Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-119/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
Gabriel Davis has run a route on 89.7% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Gabriel Davis's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 53.0% to 61.8%.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's group of CBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the best in football.

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