Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.3%).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line has given their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.6% to 49.6%.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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