Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-174/+136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +134 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.
Gabe Davis has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (94.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (49.3%).

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Gabe Davis's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 54.3%.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.