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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.0% pass rate.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Gabe Davis has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (94.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (51.5%).

The Buffalo Bills O-line has afforded their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.0% to 53.1%.

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