Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+143/-199).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -199.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (95.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (51.5%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Gabe Davis's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.0% to 55.5%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) versus WRs this year (63.2%).

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