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Gabriel Davis
NFL · Player Props
Gabriel Davis
WR · Buffalo Bills
Receptions
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022 Updated Jan 8, 2023 5:51 PM UTC
NFL Props Gabriel Davis Receptions

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+143/-199).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -199.

Favors Over
  • The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
  • Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (95.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (51.5%).
Favors Under
  • The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
  • The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Gabe Davis's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.0% to 55.5%.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) versus WRs this year (63.2%).
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